Crupi V., Elia F., Aprà F., and Tentori K., Double conjunction fallacies in physicians’ probability judgment, Medical Decision Making, 38 (2018), pp. 756-760
Crupi V., Elia F., Aprà F., and Tentori K., Double conjunction fallacies in physicians’ probability judgment, Medical Decision Making, 38 (2018), pp. 756-760
Crupi V., Nelson J.D., Meder B., Cevolani G., and Tentori K, Generalized information theory meets human cognition: Introducing a unified framework to model uncertainty and information search, Cognitive Science, 42 (2018): pp. 1410-1456.
These days I’m involved in two great events. One talk is called One, but not the same: Probabilistic confirmation and explanatory power within a conference on explanatory power at the University of Geneva (full program HERE). Afterwards, I’ll be talking about Rationality and reasoning research (A guide for the perplexed) at the 2018 conference of the East European Network for Philosophy of Science (full program HERE).
This paper – abstract below, preprint uploaded on the PhilSci archive – is the final outcome of a joint effort with fellow philosopher of science Gustavo Cevolani and cognitive psychologists Jonathan Nelson, Björn Meder, and of course Katya Tentori. It’s been an exciting and engaging challenge within DFG-funded project on New Frameworks of Rationality. Proud to have it now accepted for publication in Cognitive Science!
Next week (June 1) I’ll be in Munich once again for a very interesting workshop on Reasoning and argumentation in science organized at the Center for Advanced Studies by Ben Eva, Karolina Krzyżanowska, and Stephan Hartmann. My title: Reasoning and argumentation in the experimental study of reasoning and argumentation (coauthored with Katya Tentori). Check out full program HERE.
Fabrizio Elia and I have been invited to give a talk on Clinical reasoning in internal medicine at the 2017 Congress of the Swiss Society of General Internal Medicine.
The Fifth Reasoning Club Conference will take place at the Center for Logic, Language, and Cognition in Turin on May 18-19, 2017. The Reasoning Club is a network of institutes, centres, departments, and groups addressing research topics connected to reasoning, inference, and methodology broadly construed. It issues the monthly gazette The Reasoner. The full program of the 2017 conference is available HERE.
The Sixth Annual Meeting of the Priority Program New Frameworks of Rationality is taking place next week again in Etelsen (Bremen). This year I’ll be presenting with Katya Tentori new bits of data and theory on “Entropy models and scoring rules“. Full program HERE.
Back again to Munich in a few days, where Luis Rosa and Andi Kapsner organized a great event on The relevance of logic to human reasoning. Title of my talk: Rationality and reasoning research: A guide for the perplexed. Full program HERE.
Generalized confirmation and relevance measures
Abstract. The main point of the paper is to show how popular probabilistic measures of incremental confirmation and statistical relevance with qualitatively different features can >>
Off to Trieste in a few days for a great workshop on Realism, Progress, and Cognitive Values, organized by Gustavo Cevolani, Luca Tambolo, and Roberto Festa (program HERE). I’ll be talking about Varieties of uncertainty: The case to go beyond Shannon entropy (and Kullback-Leibler).
On September 22-23 we’ll be having the second workshop of the European Non-Categorical Thinking Project (EuNoC #2) at the Center for Logic, Language, and Cognition (LLC) in Turin, with talks by Simon Hewitt (Leeds), Giancluca Pozzato (Turin), Katrin Schulz and Francesco Berto (Amsterdam), Arif Ahmed (Cambridge), and Hykel Hosni (Milan). Check out the detailed program (with abstracts) HERE!
Later this week I’ll be giving a lecture on clinical reasoning at the 15th European Congress of Internal Medicine in Amsterdam with Dr. Fabrizio Elia. Title and short abstract below!
Two friends and collaborators, Katya Tentori (Trento) and Matteo Colombo (Tilburg), are going to present research work I’ve been involved in at the next International Conference on Thinking (Brown University, Providence, RI, August 4-6). Abstracts are below. (Sad that I’ll be missing the event, which will be truly remarkable: have a look yourself at the complete program!)
In about a month, UCL will be hosting an event in memory of Vittorio Girotto (see HERE). I’m very proud to be involved, looking forward to meeting some good friends and presenting joint work with Vittorio as well (this paper and this talk will be the starting point, although I’m not entirely happy anymore with several details and I’ve been revising them meanwhile). Vittorio was an outstanding researcher and a great friend. If I ever got to do anything decent in connection with the psychology of reasoning, he’s one of those I should thank first. (Memories of many other friends – some in Italian – have been collected HERE.)
Starting from October 2016, the University of Turin will offer a new MA program in philosophy taught in English: the Philosophy International Curriculum. Application is possible from June 20!
Elia F., Aprà F., Verhovez A., and Crupi V., “First, know thyself”: Cognition and error in medicine, 53 (2016): 169-175.
Tentori K. Chater N., and Crupi V., Judging the probability of hypotheses versus the impact of evidence: Which form of inductive inference is more accurate and time-consistent? Cognitive Science, 40 (2016): 758-778.
A call for application is out for the International Rationality Summer School Institute 2016 to be held September 4-16, 2016, in Aurich (Germany). Apparently yes, the picture’s from there, although I still have to check out But regardless, this is a cool initiative — very proud to be part of it! I’ll be talking about Norms vs. evidence in reasoning research. Course description below.
Great workshop on entropy (and entropies) next Monday and Tuesday in Ludwigsburg. Organized by Laura Martignon and Gabriele Kern-Isberner within the DFG project New Frameworks of Rationality, program HERE (I’ll be making my case for quadratic entropy again).
Crupi V. and Tentori K., Noisy probability judgment, the conjunction fallacy, and rationality: Comment on Costello and Watts (2014), Psychological Review, 123 (2016): 97-102.
Next Thursday, November 26, I’ll be at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy to make my case for quadratic entropy (instead of Shannon’s) in formal philosophy of science. Title and abstract below.
Cevolani G. and Crupi V., Subtleties of naïve reasoning: Probability, Confirmation, and Verisimilitude in the Linda paradox. In M. Bianca and P. Piccari (eds.), Epistemology of Ordinary Knowledge, Cambridge Scholars, 2015 (pp. 211-230).
Next Monday (October, 12), I’ll give a talk on The limits of clinical reasoning at the 116th Congress of the Italian Society of Internal Medicine (SIMI) in Rome, with Dr. Fabrizio Elia. (HERE the complete program.)
At the European Philosophy of Science Association Conference starting tomorrow in Düsseldorf (September, 23-26) we’ll be having a symposium on Measure-sensitivity in the study of reasoning and cognition (my talk: Shannon and beyond: Generalized entropies and rational information search). Program, book of abstracts and of extended abstracts are all available online.
The Rutgers Philosophy Department and the Rutgers Center for Cognitive Science will be hosting a cool workshop September 18-20, bringing together scholars from the NYC area, Amsterdam (the Institute for Logic, Language, and Computation), and Munich (the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy). The schedule is HERE. I proudly feature as a MCMPer Title and abstract of my talk below.
Nelson J.D., Crupi V., Meder B., Cevolani G., and Tentori K., Beyond Shannon entropy:
A unified mathematical framework for entropy measures and its importance for understanding human active learning, 48th Annual Meeting of the Society for Mathematical Psychology (Newport Beach, July 20, 2015).
Models and Inferences: Logical, Epistemological, and Cognitive Issues
Sestri Levante, June 25-27
Next week (June, 11-13) the XII Annual Conference of the Italian Association for the History of Political Economy (STOREP) will be held in Turin. The topic is fascinating – Economics in the crisis and the challenge of interdisciplinarity – and the program includes amazing speakers. I’ll try to make my modest contribution to a round table by the end of the event. The title is The future of economics as a social science. No less
Off to Rome next week (May 13, h 16, Aula Elio Matassi) to give a PhD seminar talk:
One, but not the same: Bayesian confirmation theories and their implications
Abstract. According to a Bayesian view of confirmation, the relation of support between >>
Soon headed to Padua for a great event on Model selection: Ockham’s razors and related issues (April, 14-16), organized by Daniele Giaretta e Telmo Pievani. Invited speakers include Elliott Sober (Wisconsin) and Jan-Willem Romeijn (Groningen). Gustavo Cevolani, Roberto Festa and I will present work on Likelihood principles and the grammar of Bayesian confirmation. Full program HERE.
The yearly conference of the New Frameworks of Rationality program will take place again in Etelsen (Bremen) next month. This year I’ll be talking about generalized entropies and rational information search (joint work with Jonathan Nelson, Björn Meder, Gustavo Cevolani, and Katya Tentori). Here is the schedule, with lots of great speakers and presentations. Below our abstract.
Center for Logic, Language, and Cognition
University of Turin
via Sant’Ottavio 20, Turin (Italy)
February 6, 2015
From the conference webpage at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy:
2015 marks the 15th anniversary of the publications of Judea Pearl’s Causality and the second edition of Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines’ Causality, Prediction, and Search, which together are the foundations for the mathematical theory of causal modeling.
Nelson J.D., Meder B., Szalay C., Crupi V., and Tentori K., Implications of disregarding objective utilities when selecting a medical test, Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society (Long Beach, November 23, 2014).
Indicative conditionals and probabilistic support is the title of a talk I’ll be giving in Ludwigsburg next week (Monday 17, November). The workshop Reasoning and making decisions is organized by Laura Martignon and Keith Stenning. Full program here, my abstract below.
Next Friday, November 7, Gustavo Cevolani and I will be giving a talk on the cognitive aspects of medical error at the IX National Congress of the Italian Society of Emergency Medicine (SIMEU) to be held in Turin. The complete (and huge) program HERE.
Next week, October 2, I’ll be in Venice with colleagues and old friends (Katya Tentori, Vittorio Girotto, and others) for a workshop in honor of yet another colleague, friend, and master in judgment and decision making research, Michel Gonzalez. I’ll be talking about rationality and human reasoning again: HERE is the full program.
Brand new issue of Erkenntnis out. It collects contributions arising from the 9th Formal Epistemology Workshop (FEW), held in Munich a while back (May-June 2012): brilliant stuff by Lara Buchak, Brad Armendt, Lieven Decock, Igor Douven, Christoph Kelp, Sylvia Wenmackers, Mark Jago, Alexandra Hill, Jeff Paris, Chris Meacham, Hans Rott, and Michael Morreau.
Crupi V. and Tentori K., Measuring information and confirmation, Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science, 47 (2014): 81-90.
Nelson J.D., Meder B., Szalay C., Crupi V., and Tentori K., Implications of disregarding objective utilities when selecting a medical test, 15th Biennal European Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (Antwerp, June 10, 2014).
Almost ready to go to Rome for the 2014 conference of the Italian Society for Logic and Philosophy of Science (SILFS). Two talks to give there: partial entailment on Thursday 19 June, rationality norms and reasoning on Friday 20. Here below my abstracts from the program.
The first issue of Ergo: Open Access Journal of Philosophy is out! Several exciting papers – and, as a bonus, an editorial with data about submissions and turnaround times.
On Thursday, May 15, we will have the first meeting of a joint research project funded by the Italian Ministry of Research on Structures and dynamics of knowledge and cognition. The program is available HERE.
The Erratum to the partial entailment paper by Katya Tentori and me has just been published on the Journal of Applied Logic. I’ve now attached the Erratum at the end of the paper itself (here). Problem solved
I’ll be presenting my joint work with Vittorio Girotto on is/ought, rationality, and the psychology of reasoning at the 2014 workshop of the Nordic Network for Philosophy of Science in Lund (our title: Models of rationality and the psychology of reasoning: From is to ought, and back; see here for the whole program).
Crupi V. and Girotto V., From is to ought, and back: How normative concerns foster progress in reasoning research, Frontiers in Psychology, 5 (2014): 219.
Looking forward to getting back to Florence after a good while to give a state-of-the-art talk on The logic and psychology of evidential support!
The yearly conference of the New Frameworks of Rationality program is forthcoming once again in Etelsen (Bremen). This year I won’t be able to attend, unfortunately. Luckily, though, Jonathan Nelson will be presenting joint work and prospects for future research concerning Entropy, confirmation, and information. Good stuff
Michael Schippers pointed out to me an error in the proof of the main result of our recently published article (by Katya Tentori and I) on confirmation and partial entailment. While we prepare an Erratum for the journal, HERE is a corrected version of the proof.
Crupi V. and Tentori K., Confirmation as partial entailment: A representation theorem in inductive logic, Journal of Applied Logic, 11 (2013): 364-372.
Operationalition 2013 is an interdisciplinary workshop at the edge of experimental psychology and analytical philosophy. The workshop will take place at the FRIAS in Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany), October 15-16, 2013.
I’ve been interviewed by Matteo Morganti for The Reasoner. The interview is out this month (October 2013), with scattered remarks on things I like and I would like to do and on people I like and I’m working with.
Nelson J.D., Szalay C., Meder B., Crupi V., Gigerenzer G., and Tentori K., On optimality conditions for the likelihood difference heuristic, 46th Annual Meeting of the Society of Mathematical Psychology (Potsdam, August 5).
Ergo is a new, general, open access philosophy journal accepting submissions on all philosophical topics and from all philosophical traditions. This includes, among other things: history of philosophy, work in both the analytic and continental traditions, as well as formal and empirically informed philosophy.
Crupi V., Confirmation, in E.N. Zalta (ed.), The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
Tentori K. and Crupi V., Why quantum probability does not explain the conjunction fallacy, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36 (2013): 308-310.
Feynman on the scientific method is bright and fun (watch the video below). Yet a bit at odds, it seems to me, with his claim that “philosophy of science is about as useful to scientists as ornithology is to birds”…
The yearly conference of the priority program New Frameworks of Rationality of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinshaft (DFG) is taking place on 5-7 March in Etelsen (near Bremen). The program is rich and intriguing .
Tentori K., Crupi V., and Russo S., On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: Probability vs. inductive confirmation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 142 (2013): 235-255.
Crupi V., Chater N., and Tentori K., New axioms for probability and likelihood ratio measures. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 64 (2013): 189-204.